自2023年以來，線下演出行業供需兩旺，根據中國演出行業協會，1H23累計舉辦演出（不含旅遊演藝）超12萬場，同比大幅增長，票房收入97億元，已達2019年全年的76.9%；2023年前三季度累計觀演人次達1.11億，超2019年全年水平。本報告就演出行業進行深度解析，從發展歷程、產業鏈剖析、票務平臺競爭格局等方面展開詳細討論，並以海外頭部公司Live Nation為鑒，思考國內演出行業的未來發展路徑和趨勢。
Since 2023, the offline performance industry has seen strong demand and supply. According to the China Association of Performing Arts, more than 120,000 performances (excluding tourism performances) were held in the first half of 2023, marking a significant year-on-year increase. The box office revenue reached 9.7 billion yuan, which is 76.9% of the total for the entire year of 2019. In the first three quarters of 2023, the total number of audience members reached 111 million, surpassing the total for 2019.
This report provides an in-depth analysis of the performance industry, discussing its development history, industry chain analysis, and the competitive landscape of ticketing platforms. Additionally, it takes the leading international company Live Nation as a reference to explore the future development paths and trends of the domestic performance industry.
2024年演出行業規模或達274億元，中長期多元類型有望迸發活力。線下演出行業是涵蓋多元現場觀演與體驗的娛樂活動，2023年行業實現強勁復蘇，亦呈現城際分布多點開花、年輕化與社交化明顯、音樂類演出占比高的新亮點。我們認為，中短期，隨著需求釋放及藝人排期供給增加，演出行業或持續繁榮，實現健康發展，我們預計2023年和2024年演出票房收入分別或達244/274億元，同比增速分別為324%和12%；中長期，行業有望受益演出形式多樣化而迸發活力。
The performance industry is expected to reach a scale of 27.4 billion yuan in 2024, with diverse types of performances expected to flourish in the medium to long term. The offline performance industry encompasses a variety of live viewing and experiential entertainment activities. In 2023, the industry experienced a strong recovery, showing new highlights such as widespread intercity distribution, a clear trend toward younger and more social audiences, and a high proportion of music performances.
We believe that in the short to medium term, with the release of demand and an increase in the supply of artists' schedules, the performance industry is likely to continue to prosper and achieve healthy development. We estimate that the box office revenue for performances in 2023 and 2024 could reach 24.4 billion yuan and 27.4 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 324% and 12%. In the medium to long term, the industry is expected to benefit from the diversification of performance formats, leading to a burst of vitality.
國內票務平臺競爭格局相對穩定。通過拆解演出行業產業鏈，我們認為，演出行業內容方和下遊場館方等參與主體較多，產業環節集中度較低，而大麥、貓眼娛樂等頭部票務平臺市占率相對領先，且具備線下文娛產業鏈多元資源稟賦。我們認為，基於長期發展的技術沈澱和藝人資源合作經驗，互聯網票務平臺亦覆蓋廣泛用戶群體，具備較強的宣發能力和潛在的內容建設優勢。
The competitive landscape of domestic ticketing platforms is relatively stable. By analyzing the performance industry supply chain, we find that there are many participants in the content production and downstream venue sectors, resulting in a low concentration of industry segments. Leading ticketing platforms such as Damai and Maoyan Entertainment hold a relatively advanced market share and possess diverse resources in the offline entertainment industry chain. We believe that, based on their long-term technological development and experience in artist resource cooperation, internet ticketing platforms cover a broad user base and have strong promotional capabilities and potential advantages in content development.
借鑒Live Nation發展模式，頭部平臺有望實現產業鏈縱向延伸。 Live Nation是全球頭部現場娛樂公司，具有「演出主辦+藝人經紀+在線票務業務+場館運營+贊助廣告」全產業鏈布局。根據公告，2023年公司在美國地區的演出市場收入142億美元，約為我們預估的中國演出市場總票房規模（不含旅遊演藝）的3.2倍。我們認為，Live Nation發展歷程呈現三個主要特點：向上遊拓展，增強內容業務收入占比；向下遊拓展，多元化場館經營；通過收購或合作方式，延伸產業鏈多個環節；未來國內頭部平臺或可借鑒其發展模式，內容端加強藝人合作及內容出品，渠道端可通過自建、聯營等模式參與場館運營，實現產業鏈縱向延伸和更廣闊的盈利空間。
Drawing on the development model of Live Nation, leading platforms are expected to achieve vertical extension of the industry chain. Live Nation is the world's leading live entertainment company, with a full industry chain layout that includes "concert promotion, artist management, online ticketing, venue operation, and sponsorship advertising." According to announcements, the company's performance market revenue in the United States in 2023 was $14.2 billion, approximately 3.2 times our estimated total box office size for the Chinese performance market (excluding tourism performances).We believe that Live Nation's development path demonstrates three main characteristics:
Expanding upstream to increase the proportion of content business revenue.Expanding downstream to diversify venue operations.
- Extending multiple segments of the industry chain through acquisitions or partnerships.
In the future, domestic leading platforms may draw on this development model by strengthening artist cooperation and content production on the content side, and by participating in venue operations through self-construction, joint ventures, and other models on the channel side, achieving vertical extension of the industry chain and broader profit margins.
2023年線下演出行業供需兩旺，票房及觀演人次均呈現快速回升。根據中國演出行業協會， 2023年上半年累計舉辦演出（不含旅遊演藝，下同）超12萬場，票房收入97.38億元，同比均大幅增長，票房收入已達2019年全年76.9%；而2023年前三季度累計觀演人次達1.11億，已超2019年全年。並且2023年演出市場復蘇呈現城際分布多點開花、年輕化趨勢明顯、音樂類演出占比高的新亮點。我們認為，隨著頭部藝人巡演計劃持續和演出供給的豐富多元化，觀演需求或持續提升，演出市場有望持續繁榮，我們預計2024年演出票房總收入或達274億元。
In 2023, the offline performance industry saw strong demand and supply, with both box office revenue and audience numbers showing rapid recovery. According to the China Association of Performing Arts, in the first half of 2023, over 120,000 performances (excluding tourism performances) were held, generating box office revenue of 9.738 billion yuan, both showing significant year-on-year growth. The box office revenue reached 76.9% of the total for the entire year of 2019. In the first three quarters of 2023, the total audience number reached 111 million, surpassing the total for 2019. Moreover, the recovery of the performance market in 2023 has shown new highlights, such as widespread intercity distribution, a clear trend toward younger audiences, and a high proportion of music performances. We believe that with the continued touring plans of leading artists and the rich diversification of performance supply, the demand for performances will likely continue to rise. The performance market is expected to continue to prosper, and we estimate that the total box office revenue for performances in 2024 could reach 27.4 billion yuan.
圖表1：演出行業總體經濟規模構成拆分：2019年演出行業票房收入127億元（不含旅遊演藝口徑），資料來源：中國演出協會，中金公司研究部
Chart 1: Breakdown of the Overall Economic Scale of the Performance Industry: In 2019, the box office revenue of the performance industry was 12.7 billion yuan (excluding tourism performances). Source: China Association of Performing Arts, CICC Research Department.
產業鏈拆解：內容方和場館方主體多且格局分散，垂直整合程度較低；票務方競爭格局相對穩定，大麥市占率第一。內容方：行業生態碎片化，進入門檻相對較低且利益聯系密切，以藝人資源及內容為核心競爭力；票務方：競爭格局相對穩定，根據QuestMobile，2023年大麥平均MAU為2,225萬人，占主要票務平臺的57.4%；2023年1~6月大麥交易金額超過70億元，貓眼娛樂市占率位列第二；場館方：二、三線城市文化場館建設帶動演出市場下沈；2022年小劇場、新空間數量及演出場次均較2019年提升超50%。我們認為，未來場館的邊界將拓寬，功能逐漸融演出、娛樂、消費於一體，推動新型演藝形式出現；贊助方：線下演唱會、音樂節經濟效益明顯，品牌造節及跨界營銷成為新趨勢。
Industry Chain Analysis:
Content Providers and Venues: The market is fragmented with many participants, leading to a low degree of vertical integration.
Ticketing Platforms: The competitive landscape is relatively stable, with Damai holding the largest market share. According to QuestMobile, Damai's average MAU in 2023 was 22.25 million, accounting for 57.4% of major ticketing platforms. From January to June 2023, Damai's transaction amount exceeded 7 billion yuan, with Maoyan Entertainment ranking second in market share.
Venues: The construction of cultural venues in second- and third-tier cities is driving the performance market to sink. In 2022, the number of small theaters, new spaces, and performances all increased by more than 50% compared to 2019.
Sponsors: Offline concerts and music festivals have significant economic benefits, with brand festival creation and cross-industry marketing becoming new trends.
他山之石：借鑒Live Nation發展模式，從票務平臺到泛娛樂提供商。Live Nation「演出主辦+藝人經紀+在線票務業務+場館運營+贊助廣告」的全產業鏈布局，持續助力其在疫情後打開利潤增長新空間。根據公司公告，2023年公司收入227.4億美元，同比增長36.3%。公司收入來源於演唱會、票務及贊助廣告三大板塊，其中演唱會業務為公司收入主要來源。演唱會業務：主要收入來源於演出票房，成本包括藝人的合同費用、製作成本以及其他與演出製作和運營相關的費用。票務業務：通過Live Nation和Ticketmaster網站、移動應用程序銷售演出門票並收取服務費用，單張門票服務費在6~9美元之間。贊助和廣告業務：包括售賣場館命名權、場館標牌出租以及獨家合作夥伴權利等。通過分析Live Nation發展歷程，我們認為其呈現三個主要特點：向上遊拓展，增強內容業務收入占比；向下遊拓展，多元化場館經營；通過收購或合作方式，延伸產業鏈多個環節。
Learning from Live Nation's Development Model:
Live Nation is a global leader in live entertainment with a full industry chain layout including concert promotion, artist management, online ticketing, venue operation, and sponsorship advertising. This comprehensive approach has helped it open new profit growth spaces post-pandemic. According to company announcements, Live Nation's revenue in 2023 was $22.74 billion, an increase of 36.3% year-on-year. The company's revenue comes from three main segments: concerts, ticketing, and sponsorship and advertising, with concerts being the primary source. Concert revenue mainly comes from ticket sales, with costs including artist contract fees, production costs, and other expenses related to concert production and operation. Ticketing revenue comes from selling tickets through Live Nation and Ticketmaster websites and mobile apps, with a service fee of $6-$9 per ticket. Sponsorship and advertising revenue includes selling venue naming rights, leasing venue signage, and exclusive partnership rights.
未來展望：國內票務平臺產業鏈縱向延伸，有望提升盈利能力：大麥全鏈路布局內容、場館、票務三大現場娛樂領域，與阿裏實現生態協同；貓眼娛樂加快在線演出票務布局，探索和發展演出項目的投資、出品及IP開發等；紛玩島憑借母公司CMC Live的豐富藝人資源有一定差異化優勢。我們認為，國內票務平臺縱向延伸產業鏈的外部優勢在於票務方市場集中度高，競爭格局較內容方、場館方等更加穩定；內部優勢在於依托長期積累的技術優勢及藝人資源對接能力建立高行業進入壁壘；依托互聯網平臺觸達用戶數據，建立先進宣發及內容建設優勢。
Future Outlook:
Domestic Ticketing Platforms' Vertical Extension of the Industry Chain:
Damai: Integrates content, venues, and ticketing in live entertainment, achieving ecosystem synergy with Alibaba.
Maoyan Entertainment: Accelerates the layout of online ticketing, exploring and developing investments, production, and IP development of performance projects.
Fenwan Island: Has a differentiated advantage due to its parent company CMC Live's rich artist resources.
我們認為，演出票務平臺可借鑒國外Live Nation的發展模式，向上遊內容製作及下遊場館運營擴展。內容端：依托票務平臺技術優勢及經驗加強上遊藝人合作、依托旗下內容廠牌差異化布局演出品類，或考慮通過收購整合上遊內容資源；場館端：通過自建、聯營等模式參與場館運營，迎合演出新業態打造新型演藝空間，實現產業鏈縱向延伸和更廣闊的盈利空間。
We believe that domestic ticketing platforms' vertical extension of the industry chain has the following advantages:
External Advantages: High market concentration of ticketing platforms, with a more stable competitive landscape compared to content providers and venues.
Internal Advantages: Establishing high industry entry barriers based on long-term accumulated technical advantages and artist resource connections; leveraging internet platforms to reach user data, creating advanced promotion and content development advantages.
